Case Study: Preventing loss to follow-up for ART clients in Mozambique and Nigeria
Minimizing IIT in HIV care with Artificial Intelligence
Individual, AI-powered client risk scores
Loss to follow up rates reduced by half
Reduction in patients flagged for intervention
Client retention in ART: A pivotal lever in the global fight against AIDS
Retention in care for clients in antiretroviral therapy treatment (ART) is crucial in the global fight against HIV/AIDS. Clients who drop out of treatment risk a resurgence in viral load, more likely to develop drug resistance, and require more aggressive medication. However, traditional methods for evaluating the risk of interruption in treatment remain often inaccurate, putting UNAIDS' 95-95-95 targets at risk.
Pendulum’s AI tool improves predictions into IIT among ART clients
To address these challenges, Pendulum has deployed Predict\People – an AI-based forecasting tool for more accurate insights into the likelihood of interruption-in-treatment (IIT) for ART clients.
The tool leverages diverse data including health facility data, EMR, geospatial information, and satellite imagery. It applies advanced algorithms to provide healthcare systems with real-time, precise risk assessments and scores for each client's visit or drug collection.
The implementation came through the Data.FI project, funded by PEPFAR and managed by USAID, across both Mozambique and Nigeria.
Predict\People more accurately forecasts ART client behaviours
Predict\People demonstrated an advanced ability to identify patients at the highest risk of treatment interruption, significantly outperforming traditional methods.
The table below illustrates the performance in both countries when compared with baseline methods. The results have been published in the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (JAIDS).
Stockman et al, Predictive Analytics Using Machine Learning to Identify ART Clients at Health System Level at Greatest Risk of Treatment Interruption in Mozambique and Nigeria JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes90(2):p 154-160, June 1, 2022.
Lost to follow-up for both men and women was predicted with close to twice the level of accuracy. Traditional methods also flagged 19% of women and 23% of men, but missed over 80% of women and 77% of men who missed appointments. Predict\People flagged a smaller group but identified the top 15% of men and women who mostly missed their appointments.
About Pendulum
Pendulum is an AI company that optimizes critical supply and demand networks. We make ubiquitous systems more intelligent, maximizing the impact of resources available. Our products are deployed via APIs that continuously predict demand, optimize supply, and improve on their own.
If you’d like to learn more about Predict\People or Pendulum, please send an email to predictpeople@pendulum.global.
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Why use Pendulum?
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